University Of Pune Question Paper
M.C.A. (Mgmt. Faculty) (Semester – IV) Examination 2012
BME 2 : FOUNDATION OF DECISION PROCESS (Elective)
(New) (2008 Pattern)
Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 70
Instructions : 1) Q. No. 1 is compulsory.
2) Solve any two questions from the remaining.
3) Figures to the right indicate full marks.
4) Use of Electronic Calculator is allowed.
1. a) Explain with suitable example different criterion in decision making. 10
b) Mr. Mehra had to decide whether or not to drill a well on his farm. In his
village, only 40% of the wells drilled were successful at 200 feet of depth.
Some of the farmers who did not get water at 200 feet, drilled further upto 250
feet, but only 20% struck water at 250 feet. Cost of drilling is Rs. 50 per feet.
Mr. Mehra estimated that he would pay Rs. 18,000 during a 5-year period in
the present value terms, if he continues to buy water from the neighbour
rather than go for the well which would have a life of 5 years.
Mr. Mehra has three decisions to make :
1) Should he drill upto 200 feet and
2) If no water is found at 200 feet, should he drill upto 250 feet.
3) Should he continue to buy water from his neighbour ? 10
c) Arrival rate of cars to a certain service station is according to Poisson
distribution with an average time of 50 minutes between the two consecutive
arrivals. The length of service needed by a car is assumed to be exponentially
distributed with mean of 25 minutes :
1) Determine the probability that a car arriving at the station will have to wait.
2) Average time spent by a car in a service station.
3) Determine the probability that a car arriving at the station will have to
wait for more than 10 minutes for the service.
4) Find the flow rate of the cars if the average waiting time of the cars is
35 minutes. 10
Seat
No.
[4280] – 406 -2-
2. a) Explain two person zero-sum game. Illustrate with example. 10
b) Western Travel agents have a touring van that requires a special grade of
fuel. During the past few months the van’s use has varied so much that the
amount of fuel necessary for keeping the van operating has varied considerably.
A study of past 200 days reveals that demand for the car has flactuated
between 0 to 5 trips/week
Trips/week 0 1 2 34 5
Frequency 16 24 30 60 40 30
Using the following random numbers, simulate the demand for a ten week period :
26, 84, 21, 38, 36, 73, 16, 81, 59, 83
Also find average demand per week for the car. 10
3. a) An ice-cream retailer, buys ice cream at a cost of Rs. 5 per cup and sells it
for Rs. 10 per cup; any remaining unsold at the end of the day can be disposed
of at a salvage price of Rs. 3 per cup. Pas sales has ranged between 15 and
18 per day. 10
Demand 15 16 17 18
Probability 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.30
How many cups of ice cream retailer should kept in a stock so as to maximize
its profit ? What is the optimum expected profit ?
b) There are two companies A and B in a certain city. Both companies have
similar reputation and the total number of customers is equally divided between
two companies. Both the companies want to attract a greater number of
customers by using different media of advertisement. By seeing the market
trend, the company A constructed following pay-off matrix where numbers in
the matrix a gain or loss of customers to it.
Company B
↓
Company A Newspaper Radio T.V. Magazine
↓ ↓
Newspaper 40 50 –17 80
Radio 10 25 –10 60
T.V. 100 30 60 90
Magazine – 30 – 20 – 35 75
Find optimal strategies for both the companies and also find value of the
game. 10
-3- [4280] – 406
4. a) On January 1 (this year) Bakery A had 30% of its local market share while
other two bakeries B and C had 40% and 30% respectively of the market
share. Based upon a study by a marketing research firm the following facts
were compiled. Bakery A retains 85% of its customers while gaining 5% of
competitor B’s customers and 15% of C’s customers. Bakery B retains 90%
of its customers. While gaining 8% of A’s and 5% of C’s customers. Bakery C
retains 80% of its customers while gains 7% of A’s customers and 5% of B’s
customers.
What will each firms share be on January 1 next year ?
What will each firms market share be at equilibrium ? 10
b) Write short notes on (any two) :
1) Various queue models.
2) Monte Carlo simulation.
3) Utility theory in decision making. 10
————————
B/
M.C.A. (Mgmt. Faculty) (Semester – IV) Examination 2012
BME 2 : FOUNDATION OF DECISION PROCESS (Elective)
(New) (2008 Pattern)
Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 70
Instructions : 1) Q. No. 1 is compulsory.
2) Solve any two questions from the remaining.
3) Figures to the right indicate full marks.
4) Use of Electronic Calculator is allowed.
1. a) Explain with suitable example different criterion in decision making. 10
b) Mr. Mehra had to decide whether or not to drill a well on his farm. In his
village, only 40% of the wells drilled were successful at 200 feet of depth.
Some of the farmers who did not get water at 200 feet, drilled further upto 250
feet, but only 20% struck water at 250 feet. Cost of drilling is Rs. 50 per feet.
Mr. Mehra estimated that he would pay Rs. 18,000 during a 5-year period in
the present value terms, if he continues to buy water from the neighbour
rather than go for the well which would have a life of 5 years.
Mr. Mehra has three decisions to make :
1) Should he drill upto 200 feet and
2) If no water is found at 200 feet, should he drill upto 250 feet.
3) Should he continue to buy water from his neighbour ? 10
c) Arrival rate of cars to a certain service station is according to Poisson
distribution with an average time of 50 minutes between the two consecutive
arrivals. The length of service needed by a car is assumed to be exponentially
distributed with mean of 25 minutes :
1) Determine the probability that a car arriving at the station will have to wait.
2) Average time spent by a car in a service station.
3) Determine the probability that a car arriving at the station will have to
wait for more than 10 minutes for the service.
4) Find the flow rate of the cars if the average waiting time of the cars is
35 minutes. 10
Seat
No.
[4280] – 406 -2-
2. a) Explain two person zero-sum game. Illustrate with example. 10
b) Western Travel agents have a touring van that requires a special grade of
fuel. During the past few months the van’s use has varied so much that the
amount of fuel necessary for keeping the van operating has varied considerably.
A study of past 200 days reveals that demand for the car has flactuated
between 0 to 5 trips/week
Trips/week 0 1 2 34 5
Frequency 16 24 30 60 40 30
Using the following random numbers, simulate the demand for a ten week period :
26, 84, 21, 38, 36, 73, 16, 81, 59, 83
Also find average demand per week for the car. 10
3. a) An ice-cream retailer, buys ice cream at a cost of Rs. 5 per cup and sells it
for Rs. 10 per cup; any remaining unsold at the end of the day can be disposed
of at a salvage price of Rs. 3 per cup. Pas sales has ranged between 15 and
18 per day. 10
Demand 15 16 17 18
Probability 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.30
How many cups of ice cream retailer should kept in a stock so as to maximize
its profit ? What is the optimum expected profit ?
b) There are two companies A and B in a certain city. Both companies have
similar reputation and the total number of customers is equally divided between
two companies. Both the companies want to attract a greater number of
customers by using different media of advertisement. By seeing the market
trend, the company A constructed following pay-off matrix where numbers in
the matrix a gain or loss of customers to it.
Company B
↓
Company A Newspaper Radio T.V. Magazine
↓ ↓
Newspaper 40 50 –17 80
Radio 10 25 –10 60
T.V. 100 30 60 90
Magazine – 30 – 20 – 35 75
Find optimal strategies for both the companies and also find value of the
game. 10
-3- [4280] – 406
4. a) On January 1 (this year) Bakery A had 30% of its local market share while
other two bakeries B and C had 40% and 30% respectively of the market
share. Based upon a study by a marketing research firm the following facts
were compiled. Bakery A retains 85% of its customers while gaining 5% of
competitor B’s customers and 15% of C’s customers. Bakery B retains 90%
of its customers. While gaining 8% of A’s and 5% of C’s customers. Bakery C
retains 80% of its customers while gains 7% of A’s customers and 5% of B’s
customers.
What will each firms share be on January 1 next year ?
What will each firms market share be at equilibrium ? 10
b) Write short notes on (any two) :
1) Various queue models.
2) Monte Carlo simulation.
3) Utility theory in decision making. 10
————————
B/
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