University Of Pune Question Paper
M.C.A. (Mgmt. Faculty) (Sem. – IV) Examination, 2010
BME-2 : FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION PROCESS (Elective)
(2005 Pattern) (Old)
Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 70
Instructions : 1) Question No. 1 is compulsory.
2) Solve any two questions from the remaining.
3) Figures to the right indicate full marks.
4) Use of Electronic Calculator is allowed.
1. a) Explain with suitable examples maximin, minimax and the regret criterion in
decision making. 10
b) A publisher is bringing out a book on Decision-Making. Its marketing
department has produced the following sales forecast covering next three
years.
Year 0 123
Demand of books 2000 3000 4000 5000
Probability 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2
The contribution to the publisher’s fixed costs and profits for every book
sold is Rs. 90. If the book is not sold the publisher loses Rs. 40 per book. If
the publisher cannot meet the demand, he estimates he loses Rs. 10 per
book of demand not met, to cover the loss of goodwill and future sales.
Use different criterion of decision making. Determine the number of books
publisher should print in every criterion. 10
c) A businessman has two independent investments available to him, but he
lacks the capital to undertake both of them simultaneously. He can choose
to take A first and then stop, or if A is successful then take B, or vice versa.
The probability of success on A is 0.7 while for B it is 0.4. Both the
investments require an initial capital outlay of 20,000 and both return nothing
if the venture is unsuccessful. Successful completion of A will return
Rs. 30,000 (over cost) and successful completion of B will return Rs. 50,000
(over cost). Draw the decision tree and determine the best strategy. 10
[3880] – 46 -2-
2. a) Explain two-person-zero-sum game. Illustrate with example. 10
b) What investment plan should he choose to maximize his expected utility ?
Assume that the rise or fall of either stock is independent of the other.
A dealer of boats has estimated the following distribution of demand for a
particular kind of boat.
Demand 0123456
Probability 0.14 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.01
Each boat costs him Rs. 7,000 and he sells them for Rs. 10,000 each. Any
boats that are left unsold at the end of the season must be disposed off for
Rs. 6,000 each. How many boats should be in stock so as to maximize his
expected profit ? 10
3. a) Solve the flowering game : 10
Strategy Player 2
1 2 3
1 2 3 1
Player 1 2 1 4 0
3 3 –2 –1
b) A confectioner sells confectionary items. Past data of demand per week
(in hundred kilograms) is given below : 10
Demand 0 5 10 15 20 25
Frequency 2 11 8 21 5 3
Consider the following sequence of random numbers :
35, 52, 90, 13, 23, 73, 34, 57, 37, 83, 94, 56, 67, 66, 60
Using the above sequence, simulate the demand for next 15 weeks. Also
find the average demand per week.
-3- [3880] – 46
4. a) A investor has Rs. 10,000 to invest in common stock. His selection is
between Companies A and B. He feels that for each of the investments, he
has a 0.7 probability for doubling his money and 0.3 probability of losing
half his money depending upon the company’s stock rising or falling
respectively. His choices are : 10
i) Invest the entire money in A or B.
ii) Invest Rs. 5,000 in one company and not invest in order.
iii) Invest Rs. 5,000 in A and Rs. 5,000 in B.
If this utility values changes in assets are Rs. 10,000 = 1, Rs. 5,000 = 0.9,
Rs. 2,500 = 0.7, Rs. 0 = 0.4, Rs. 2,500 = 0.2, Rs. 5,000 = 0.
b) Write short notes on any two : 10
a) Various Queue Models
b) Simulation Techniques
c) Decision-making criterion.
————————
M.C.A. (Mgmt. Faculty) (Sem. – IV) Examination, 2010
BME-2 : FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION PROCESS (Elective)
(2005 Pattern) (Old)
Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 70
Instructions : 1) Question No. 1 is compulsory.
2) Solve any two questions from the remaining.
3) Figures to the right indicate full marks.
4) Use of Electronic Calculator is allowed.
1. a) Explain with suitable examples maximin, minimax and the regret criterion in
decision making. 10
b) A publisher is bringing out a book on Decision-Making. Its marketing
department has produced the following sales forecast covering next three
years.
Year 0 123
Demand of books 2000 3000 4000 5000
Probability 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2
The contribution to the publisher’s fixed costs and profits for every book
sold is Rs. 90. If the book is not sold the publisher loses Rs. 40 per book. If
the publisher cannot meet the demand, he estimates he loses Rs. 10 per
book of demand not met, to cover the loss of goodwill and future sales.
Use different criterion of decision making. Determine the number of books
publisher should print in every criterion. 10
c) A businessman has two independent investments available to him, but he
lacks the capital to undertake both of them simultaneously. He can choose
to take A first and then stop, or if A is successful then take B, or vice versa.
The probability of success on A is 0.7 while for B it is 0.4. Both the
investments require an initial capital outlay of 20,000 and both return nothing
if the venture is unsuccessful. Successful completion of A will return
Rs. 30,000 (over cost) and successful completion of B will return Rs. 50,000
(over cost). Draw the decision tree and determine the best strategy. 10
[3880] – 46 -2-
2. a) Explain two-person-zero-sum game. Illustrate with example. 10
b) What investment plan should he choose to maximize his expected utility ?
Assume that the rise or fall of either stock is independent of the other.
A dealer of boats has estimated the following distribution of demand for a
particular kind of boat.
Demand 0123456
Probability 0.14 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.01
Each boat costs him Rs. 7,000 and he sells them for Rs. 10,000 each. Any
boats that are left unsold at the end of the season must be disposed off for
Rs. 6,000 each. How many boats should be in stock so as to maximize his
expected profit ? 10
3. a) Solve the flowering game : 10
Strategy Player 2
1 2 3
1 2 3 1
Player 1 2 1 4 0
3 3 –2 –1
b) A confectioner sells confectionary items. Past data of demand per week
(in hundred kilograms) is given below : 10
Demand 0 5 10 15 20 25
Frequency 2 11 8 21 5 3
Consider the following sequence of random numbers :
35, 52, 90, 13, 23, 73, 34, 57, 37, 83, 94, 56, 67, 66, 60
Using the above sequence, simulate the demand for next 15 weeks. Also
find the average demand per week.
-3- [3880] – 46
4. a) A investor has Rs. 10,000 to invest in common stock. His selection is
between Companies A and B. He feels that for each of the investments, he
has a 0.7 probability for doubling his money and 0.3 probability of losing
half his money depending upon the company’s stock rising or falling
respectively. His choices are : 10
i) Invest the entire money in A or B.
ii) Invest Rs. 5,000 in one company and not invest in order.
iii) Invest Rs. 5,000 in A and Rs. 5,000 in B.
If this utility values changes in assets are Rs. 10,000 = 1, Rs. 5,000 = 0.9,
Rs. 2,500 = 0.7, Rs. 0 = 0.4, Rs. 2,500 = 0.2, Rs. 5,000 = 0.
b) Write short notes on any two : 10
a) Various Queue Models
b) Simulation Techniques
c) Decision-making criterion.
————————
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